Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for FE thermal model of FRP panel exposed to fire

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are performed on a model for the thermal decomposition of and heat transfer through a composite panel exposed to fire, and the results are reported. First local sensitivity coefficients of the various input parameters with respect to temperature are determined. A Monte Carlo analysis is then performed, yielding the estimated uncertainty in the model output. This analysis also yields global sensitivity coefficients for the input parameters. These analyses shed light on the behavior of the model, in terms of how the input parameters affect the results, and as well quantify the expected variability in the model output. Also, they provide information useful in the design of future experimentation such as identifying which parameters have the largest impact on the model output and which of them account for most of the uncertainty in that output.