CHA2DS2-VASc Score as a Predictor of Adverse Outcomes after Ischemic Stroke in Patients without Atrial Fibrillation

Ischemic stroke is associated with increased risk of morbidity and mortality in future vascular events. To investigate whether CHA2DS2-VASc scores aid in risk stratification of middle-aged patients without atrial fibrillation (AF) experiencing ischemic stroke. We analyzed data of 2628 patients, aged 40-65 years with no known AF who presented with acute ischemic stroke between January 2020 and February 2022. We explored the association between CHA2DS2-VASc scores categorized by subgroups (score 2-3, 4-5, or 6-7) with major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) including recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, or all-cause death during a median follow-up of 19.9 months. Mean age was 57 years (30% women); half were defined as low socioeconomic status. Co-morbidities included hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and smoking in 40-60% of the patients. The incidence rate of MACCE per 100 person-years was 6.7, 12.2, and 21.2 in those with score 2-3, 4-5, and 6-7, respectively. In a multivariate cox regression model, compared to patients with score 2-3 (reference group), those with score 4-5 and 6-7 had an adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval [95%CI]) for MACCE of 1.74 (95%CI 1.41-2.14) and 2.87 (95%CI 2.10-3.93), respectively. The discriminative capacity of CHA2DS2-VASc score for overall MACCE was modest (area under curve 0.63; 95%CI 0.60-0.66), although better for myocardial infarction 0.69 (95% CI 0.61-0.77). CHA2DS2-VASc score may predict future MACCE in middle-aged patients with ischemic stroke and no history of AF.