Prediction versus Understanding (The 2006 Ven Te Chow Lecture)

The times they are a-changin'. Global warming is upon us. Engineering is about prediction. However, in water resources engineering, many of the prediction tools soon may not be valid. They may not predict correctly under the new conditions. It may not happen in my lifetime but it certainly will in many of yours. So what can we do about it? Let me give a little of my personal history to try to help answer the question I just raised.