UNCERTAINTY IN ORBITAL DEBRIS MEASUREMENTS AND MODELS

In this paper, I provide examples of the basic types of uncertainties that we encounter in making orbital debris measurements. I outline the distinctions between Bayesian and frequentist interpretations of statistics and how this influences the types of conclusions one should or should not draw from uncertainty assessments. I also outline how uncertainties tie into such calculations as probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and the benefits and pitfalls of such analyses.