Correlation between tumor size change and outcome in a rare cancer immunotherapy basket trial

RECIST criteria for progressive disease, partial response, and complete response, reflecting +20%, -30%, and -100% tumor size changes, respectively, are critical outcome variables in oncology clinical trials. Herein, we evaluated post-immunotherapy tumor size change correlation with outcomes. We used a unique clinical trial data resource, a multicenter basket trial in patients with rare solid tumors treated with nivolumab (anti-PD-1) and ipilimumab (anti-CTLA-4) between 2017 and 2023 (National Cancer Institute/Southwest Oncology Group-sponsored DART trial [NCT02834013]) (open at 1083 sites at its peak). Outcome associations were evaluated by survival analysis techniques including Martingale residuals. In 638 evaluable patients, we found strong linear relationships between percent change in tumor measurement up to a 40%-50% increase and progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) (both Cox regression P