Do Ecosystems Ever Converge? Evidence From Faunal Size Distributions Of Late Miocene North American Mammals

There is disagreement among geologists as to whether ecosystem system behavior in general is the net result of all of the complex internal system interactions (bottom-driven) or if the behavior is driven by a limited number of key processes (top-driven). If ecosystems are primarily bottom-driven in nature, then it is unlikely that any two complex ecosystems will ever behaviorally converge as a simple matter of probability, or that their behaviors will ever be predictable. Conversely, evidence of ecosystem convergence would suggest that the systems are top-driven, with the corollary that their behaviors can be understood (and therefore in principle predicted) without a complete understanding of their internal workings.Research has demonstrated that body mass distributions of terrestrial animals broadly reflect ecosystem function. Thus, comparable but causally disconnected terrestrial ecosystems that demonstrate similar body mass distributions would suggest ecosystem convergence. To look for this possible convergence, I generated body mass distributions in a time series for late Miocene North American mammal faunas from the Gulf Coastal Plains, Great Plains, and Pacific coastal region, and compared them with data from the modern Serengeti savanna region. The data show that during the early late Miocene Gulf Coastal Plain faunas resembled each other but were distinctly different from that of the Serengeti, the Great Plains fauna resembled the Serengeti, while the Pacific Coast fauna showed no resemblance to any of the others. However, during the latest Miocene the Gulf Coastal Plain faunas were transformed so as to strongly resemble the Serengeti fauna. The resemblance with the Serengeti was maintained by the Great Plains faunas until at least the end of the Miocene, while the Pacific Coast faunas remained distinctly different from the others. These findings suggest that the late Miocene ecosystems of the Gulf Coastal Plain and Great Plains regions (but not the Pacific Coast region) converged with that of the Serengeti savanna fauna and thus that these ecosystems were/are top-driven rather than bottom-driven in nature.