A baseline for source localisation using the inverse modelling tool FREAR

A global network of monitoring stations is set up that can measure tiny concentrations of airborne radioactivity as part of the verification regime of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. If Treaty-relevant detections are made, inverse atmospheric transport modelling is one of the methods that can be used to determine the source of the radioactivity. In order to facilitate the testing of novel developments in inverse modelling, two sets of test cases are constructed using real-world 133Xe detections associated with routine releases from a medical isotope production facility. One set consists of 24 cases with 5 days of observations in each case, and another set consists of 8 cases with 15 days of observations in each case. A series of inverse modelling techniques and several sensitivity experiments are applied to determine the (known) location of the medical isotope production facility. Metrics are proposed to quantify the quality of the source localisation. Finally, it is illustrated how the sets of test cases can be used to test novel developments in inverse modelling algorithms. •32 real-world case studies are constructed for testing inverse modelling.•Five source localisation methods implemented in FREAR are compared.•Three metrics are proposed to quantify the performance of source localisation.•Consideration of non-detections helps to improve the source localisation.•Bayesian inference in FREAR too confident due to smaller detections.