Forecasting impact of new SIPs for chemical emissions control

States are tasked by the EPA with developing their SIPs to meet National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone. Some states are more "trouble" than others. EPA has designated 126 areas of the country as "non-attainment" areas. SIPs to overcome this deficiency are due to EPA about a year from when you read this. What strategy will each adopt? Ground-level ozone is one of the principal components of smog. Ozone is not directly emitted. It is formed in the air by chemical reactions of nitrogen oxides (N0x) and VOCsin the presence of heat and sunlight. So the states' strategy has to manage emissions from automobiles and power plants (N0x) and factories using chemicals (VOCs). To no surprise, all VOCs don't react the same with NOx in the air. And there are literally thousands of individual chemical species of VOCs that can react to form ozone. Even more complexity is added by meteorological conditions and timeVOCs emitted from your shop may not form smog until they get to your competitor's shop (or vice versa) located in a different state.