THE KYOTO PROTOCOL: WILL SOUTH AFRICA BE THE FIRST CASUALTY?

The predicted consequences of continued global increases in greenhouse gas emissions must be taken very seriously. However, the recommended emissions control measures described in the Kyoto Protocol are equally frightening, as they will have serious, adverse effects on the economies of many of the signatory nations. The `middle class' nations such as South Africa will suffer most, as large proportions of their budgets are spent on poverty alleviation and combating unemployment, malnutrition and disease. It will not be possible to meet the additional, very large capital and annual costs related to emission control measures without reducing the expenditure on humanitarian needs. South Africa has abundant coal reserves, and is more dependent on coal for its energy requirements than most other countries in the world. A substantial percentage of its liquid fuel requirement is derived from coal, and it has a large petrochemical industry based on coal. Coal exports make a large contribution to its economy. It would be impossible for South Africa to comply with the Kyoto requirements without suffering a severe setback to its economy and exacerbating its social problems. A complicating factor is that most of the dire predictions are not relevant to South Africa. The third issue is that our contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions is minimal.