Radiomics analysis for the prediction of locoregional recurrence of locally advanced oropharyngeal cancer and hypopharyngeal cancer

Purpose By radiomic analysis of the postcontrast CT images, this study aimed to predict locoregional recurrence (LR) of locally advanced oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) and hypopharyngeal cancer (HPC). Methods A total of 192 patients with stage III–IV OPC or HPC from two independent cohort were randomly split into a training cohort with 153 cases and a testing cohort with 39 cases. Only primary tumor mass was manually segmented. Radiomic features were extracted using PyRadiomics, and then the support vector machine was used to build the radiomic model with fivefold cross-validation process in the training data set. For each case, a radiomics score was generated to indicate the probability of LR. Results There were 94 patients with LR assigned in the progression group and 98 patients without LR assigned in the stable group. There was no significant difference of TNM staging, treatment strategies and common risk factors between these two groups. For the training data set, the radiomics model to predict LR showed 83.7% accuracy and 0.832 (95% CI 0.72, 0.87) area under the ROC curve (AUC). For the test data set, the accuracy and AUC slightly declined to 79.5% and 0.770 (95% CI 0.64, 0.80), respectively. The sensitivity/specificity of training and test data set for LR prediction were 77.6%/89.6%, and 66.7%/90.5%, respectively. Conclusions The image-based radiomic approach could provide a reliable LR prediction model in locally advanced OPC and HPC. Early identification of those prone to post-treatment recurrence would be helpful for appropriate adjustments to treatment strategies and post-treatment surveillance.