Nomogram based on pretreatment hepatic and renal function indicators for survival prediction of locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma with treatment of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy plus surgery

The parameters for survival prediction of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) combined with surgery are unclear. Here, we aimed to construct a nomogram for survival prediction of ESCC patients treated with NCRT combined with surgery based on pretreatment serological hepatic and renal function tests. A total of 174 patients diagnosed as ESCC were enrolled as a training cohort from July 2007 to June 2019, and approximately 50% of the cases ( n = 88) were randomly selected as an internal validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate Cox survival analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors to establish a nomogram. Predictive accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated by Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. ALT, ALP, TBA, TP, AST, TBIL and CREA were identified as independent prognostic factors and incorporated into the construction of the hepatic and renal function test nomogram (HRFTNomogram). The C-index of the HRFTNomogram for overall survival (OS) was 0.764 (95% CI 0.701–0.827) in the training cohort, which was higher than that of the TNM staging system (0.507 (95% CI 0.429–0.585), P