Nitrate leaching potential from arable land in Germany: Identifying most relevant factors

Diffuse nitrogen losses from agriculture in Germany continue to cause regionally increased nitrate concentrations in groundwater. Groundwater quality monitoring cannot be a timely indicator of the effects of mitigation measures being applied in agriculture, due to frequently long transport routes and high residence times of the leachate. Instead, nitrate leaching potential is often determined at field and farm scale by monitoring soil mineral nitrogen contents at 0–90 cm depth in autumn (SMNa), i.e. before the start of the annual leachate period. In this study, we developed an understanding of the controls on the soil mineral nitrogen content at the start of winter. In an on-farm approach, extensive data was collected from 48 farms in five nitrate-sensitive regions in Germany from 2017 to 2020. From this data set, 25 management and site factors were evaluated with regard to their significance for SMNa by means of a random forest model. With the random forest regression, we identified the role of the factors on SMNa with an acceptable model accuracy with R2 = 0.56. The results show that the cultivated crop is the most important factor influencing SMNa. Potatoes, oilseed rape and maize produced the highest SMNas, whereas SMNas were lowest after spring barley, sugar beet and winter barley. Among site factors, soil type and texture as well as precipitation in October were most decisive. The effects of N fertilisation parameters such as rate and timing were masked by these site factors. The results show that the reduction of nitrogen-intensive crops in crop sequences can be a promising measure for the reduction of nitrate loads. On the other hand, our analysis makes clear that soil-related factors controlling nitrogen release and risk of leaching, as well as weather, can significantly mask the effect of cultivation. •Prediction of potential nitrate leaching with random forest algorithm.•Grown crop revealed most important factor for nitrate leaching potential.•Site-adapted nitrogen management crucial.