Long-term PM2.5 pollution over China: Identification of PM2.5 pollution hotspots and source contributions

Fine particulate matter, with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), is a severe problem in China. The lack of ground-based measurements and its sparse distribution obstruct long-term air pollution impact studies over China. Therefore, the present study used newly updated Global Estimates (V5. GL.02) of monthly PM2.5 data from 2001 to 2020 based on Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) by Washington University. The GWR PM2.5 data were validated against ground-based measurements from 2014 to 2020, and the validation results demonstrated a good agreement between GWR and ground-based PM2.5 with a higher correlation (r = 0.95), lower error (8.14), and lower bias (−3.10 %). The long-term (2001−2020) PM2.5 data were used to identify pollution hotspots and sources across China using the potential source contribution function (PSCF). The results showed highly significant PM2.5 pollution hotspots in central (Henan, Hubei), North China Plain (NCP), northwest (Taklimakan), and Sichuan Basin (Chongqing, Sichuan) in China, with the most severe pollution occurring in winter compared to other seasons. During the winter, PM2.5 was in the range from 6.08 to 93.05 μg/m3 in 33 provinces, which is 1.22 to 18.61 times higher than the World Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Guidelines (AQG-2021; annual mean: 5 μg/m3). In 26 provinces, the reported PM2.5 was 1.07 to 2.66 times higher than the Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standard (AAQS; annual mean: 35 μg/m3). Furthermore, provincial-level trend analysis shows that in most Chinese provinces, PM2.5 increased significantly (3–43 %) from 2001 to 2012, whereas it decreased by 12–94 % from 2013 to 2020 due to the implementation of air pollution control policies. Finally, the PSCF analysis demonstrates that China's air quality is mainly affected by local PM2.5 sources rather than by pollutants imported from outside China. [Display omitted] •PM2.5 was highest in the North China Plain (annual mean > 61 μg/m3).•PM2.5 in 33 provinces was 1.11 to 13.99 times higher than the WHO AQG (≤ 5 μg/m3).•PM2.5 increased significantly (3–43 %) from 2001 to 2012.•PM2.5 reduced significantly (12–94 %) from 2013 to 2020.•China's air quality is mainly affected by local PM2.5 sources.