Methodology for the estimation of an oil spill origin: Analysis of the 2019 Brazilian coast oil spill

This research presents a procedure for determining the origin of marine pollution through the use of a time-direct trajectory modeling, associated with a Kriging metamodel technique and Monte Carlo random sampling. These methods were applied to a real case, specifically the oil spill that affected the Brazilian coast in the second half of 2019 and early 2020. A total of 140 trajectories, defined by the geographical coordinates of the origin and the spill date, were generated through Latin Hypercube Sampling and simulated using the PyGNOME model to construct the Kriging metamodel. The metamodel demonstrated cost-effectiveness by efficiently simulating numerous input data combinations which were compared and optimized based on available real data regarding temporal and spatial pollution distribution. •Development of a methodology for evaluating the possible origins of an oil spill.•The methodology is applied to the oil spill that reached the Brazilian coast.•Contribution of the wind driven forces and Coriolis effect to the large spread of oil.•Continuous monitoring is necessary for avoiding possible damages due to remaining oil.