Physicians are over optimistic in recognizing inpatients' survival and palliative care needs: a large-scale multi-center study in Taiwan

Physicians' recognition of end of life (EOL) has key influences on patients' 'good death'. We aimed to study physicians' attitude toward EOL, and to analyze the relationship between physicians' assessment and patients' actual survival and the trigger effect on patient's access to palliative consultation and palliative care. This is a multi-center retrospective cohort study in seven community hospitals in Taiwan. Inpatients admitted between 1 March 2016 and 31 December 2020, scored ≥4 points using Taiwan version-Palliative Care Screening Tool (TW-PCST), and expired before 31 December 2020 were enrolled. Physicians answered three questions regarding these inpatients: 'surprised of mortality within 6-12 months', 'EOL' and 'in need of palliative care'. We followed up patients' actual survival and access to palliative consultation and services. We enrolled 10 304 cases. There was high correlation among the three questions. The median survival of patients with 'not surprised of death within 6-12 months', 'EOL', and 'needing palliative care' were 68, 60 and 58 days, respectively. Those with opposite responses were 206, 166 and 186 days, respectively. Patients' main diagnosis, TW-PCST score, physicians' palliative care qualifications and reward measures were all associated with physicians' recognition of EOL. Physicians' assessment, physicians' training, disease characteristics and TW-PSCT scores were all associated with palliative consultation and palliative care. Physicians are still over optimistic in recognizing inpatients' survival and palliative care needs. EOL talks can be initiated when the TW-PCST score is high. Universal palliative care training can be integrated into medical education.