A risk stratification system developed to predict contralateral incidental malignant foci in early papillary thyroid carcinoma preoperatively

In clinical practice, contralateral incidental malignant foci (CIMFs) can be found in some early (cT1N0M0) papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs) on postoperative pathological examination. To screen out the patients with high risk of CIMF preoperatively would help in determining the extent of thyroid surgery. From October 2016 to February 2021, 332 patients diagnosed with early (cT1N0M0) PTC who underwent total thyroidectomy were included and randomly allocated into a training dataset (n = 233) and a test dataset (n = 99). Demographic and clinicopathological features were recorded and analyzed using logistic regression analysis. A coefficient-based nomogram was developed and validated. Logistic regression analyses revealed that the predictive model including BRAF V600E mutation, multifocality and margin of the contralateral nodule achieved the best diagnostic performance. The nomogram showed good discrimination, with AUCs of 0.795 (95 % CI, 0.736–0.853) for the training set and 0.726 (95 % CI, 0.609–0.843) for the test set. The calibration curve of the nomogram presented good agreement. The risk stratification system can be used to quantify the probability of CIMF and may assist in helping the patients choose total thyroidectomy or thyroid lobectomy with early (cT1N0M0) PTC. •Contralateral incidental malignant foci (CIMFs) can be found in some early PTCs.•BRAF V600E mutation, multifocality and contralateral nodule margin predict CIMFs.•The nomogram would help in screening those patients with high risk of CIMFs.•The nomogram may help in determining the extent of thyroid surgery preoperatively.