A QUANTUM ARMS RACE?

International competition over quantum technologies is heating up, especially between the US and China. Both countries have invested heavily in quantum technologies in recent decades. Chinese state funding in quantum research is estimated to be around $15 billion, and China holds more than 30 percent of the world's quantum patents. While China dominates in the public sector, the US leads in private-sector investment and innovation. This competition is global. Britain published its first quantum strategy in Mar 2023, and sees quantum technologies as part of its ambition to become a science and technology superpower. The European Union has built on its 2016 'Quantum Manifesto' to commit more than $1 billion to research in quantum technologies, including computing, communication and simulations. Germany alone has allocated more than $3.3 billion to a 2023 initiative explicitly designed to 'catch up' with the US and China. Many states deem certain applications of quantum technologies to be crucial for national security and economic advantage, potentially leading to two connected dynamics. The first is self-fulfilling prophecy, where one state's investment drives that of others, generating greater research and innovation that actualizes those initial fears and in turn stimulates greater security-focused work.