Impacts of climate change on cassava yield and lifecycle energy and greenhouse gas performance of cassava ethanol systems: An example from Guangxi Province, China

Significant shock of climate change on crop yield will challenge the performance of bio-crop on substituting fossil energy to mitigate climate change. Taking cassava-to-ethanol system in Guangxi Province of South China as an example, we coupled a random forest (RF) model with 10 Global climate models (GCMs) outputs to predict the future cassava yields. Subsequently, the net energy value (NEV) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the cassava-to-ethanol system across varied topographies are assessed using a life cycle analysis. We demonstrate that the abrupt increases in temperatures are the primary contributors to declining yields. Notably, cassava yields in hilly regions decline more than those in plains and display greater variability among concentration pathway scenarios over time. Future NEV and GHG performance of cassava-to-ethanol will undergo significant decreases over time, especially within the high concentration pathway scenario (NEV decrease 28%, GHG increase 3.4% from 2006 to 2100). The performance reductions in hilly area are exacerbated by more harvest loss and labor and material inputs during the “field-to-wheel”, negating its energy advantage over fossil fuels. Therefore, adopting a lower concentration pathway and favoring plantation in plains could maintain cassava-to-ethanol as a viable climate mitigation strategy. Our research also advances the methodological approach to climate change adaptation within the domain of life cycle assessment. •Statistical learning model helps scenario design in life cycle assessment.•Cassava yields drop under future climate.•Yields drop more with higher uncertainty in hilly area.•NEV decrease 28% and GHG emissions increase 3.4% under future climate RCP8.5.•Planting on lower elevation areas keep cassava-to-ethanol more climate-resilient.