Challenges of classifying and mapping perennial freshwater systems within highly variable climate zones: A case study in the Murray Darling Basin, Australia

Perennial freshwater systems are valuable natural resources that provide important ecological services globally. However, in highly variable climates, such as Australia, water availability in rivers and streams can vary greatly from year to year and from decade to decade. Further, across Australia and many other regions, perennial river systems are projected to decrease because of anthropogenic climate change, placing the ecosystems they support under additional pressure. Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on perennial freshwater systems requires robust databases of existing water features with accurate classifications. This is a challenge for rivers that display a high degree of interannual variability since the river classification can be dependent on the period of available data. In this study, we carry out a regional scale comparison of three different spatial databases commonly used in environmental and ecological assessments of perennial systems of Australia, namely Geodata, Geofabric and Water Observations from Space (WOfS). Focusing on the southern Murray Darling Basin (MDB), due to its national and international significance and its highly variable flow regimes, we show that no single spatial database is reliable by itself in terms of perennial water classification, with notable differences likely arising from variations in the periods analysed and methods used to classify the systems. Further, an analysis of high-quality gauged streamflow data (with approximately 40-year daily records) for four sub-catchments, and long-term simulation data (>100 years) for two sub-catchments in the lower MDB, confirm that flow persistence can be non-stationary through time, with some ‘perennial’ systems exhibiting sustained periods of cease to flow (i.e. becoming non-perennial) during prolonged droughts. This study demonstrates that due consideration is required in developing baseline classification of perennial freshwater systems for assessing future changes and measuring adaptive capacity. [Display omitted] •Spatial databases of freshwater systems do not reflect long-term variability.•Perennial systems may exhibit sustained periods of cease to flow during droughts.•Hydrologic models are used to assess water permanence under periods of prolonged drought.•After adequate classification, ecological adaptive capacity may be assessed.