Gene drives for invasive wasp control: Extinction is unlikely, with suppression dependent on dispersal and growth rates

Gene drives offer a potentially revolutionary method for pest control over large spatial extents. These genetic modifications spread deleterious variants through a population and have been proposed as methods for pest suppression or even eradication. We examined the influence of local dispersal, long‐distance and/or human‐mediated dispersal, and variation in population growth on the success of a gene drive for the control of invasive social wasps ( Vespula vulgaris ). Our simulations incorporated a spatially realistic environment containing variable habitat quality in New Zealand. Pest eradication was not observed, except in extreme and unrealistic scenarios of constant, widespread, and spatially intense releases of genetically modified individuals every year for decades. Instead, the regional persistence of genetically modified and wild‐type wasps was predicted. Simulations using spatially homogeneous versus realistic landscapes (incorporating uninhabitable areas and dispersal barriers) showed little difference in overall population dynamics. Overall, little impact on wasp abundance was observed in the first 15 years after introduction. After 25 years, populations were suppressed to levels