The ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars: Can it help control prospective marine pollution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Shandong Province, China?

The constantly increasing amount of road vehicles causes massive exhaust emissions of pollutants, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), necessitating a global responsibility to implement the policy of the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars. Here, we assessed the policy control efficiency on marine pollution of PAHs in China through scenario modeling and prediction models, based on pollution monitoring, risk assessment, and source apportionment of PAHs in typical bays of Shandong Province. The results showed that in 2021, the pollution risk levels were relatively low (HI: 0.008–0.068, M-ERM-Q: 0.001–0.016, IBR: 1.23–2.69, ILCR: 8.11 ×10-6-1.99 ×10-5), and PAHs were mainly derived from traffic emissions (24.9%−35.2%), coal combustion (25.2%−32.9%), petroleum (17.2%−28.9%), and biomass combustion (17.6%−22.8%). In 2050, the predicted decrease of pollution risk values after the implementation of the policy was significant (12%−26%), and the gap between 2021 and 2050 was also significantly huge (18%−85%) without considering possible substitution of conventional energy. Collectively, this study built systematic approaches for assessing prospective marine pollution of PAHs. However, due to the particularity of Shandong Province, i.e., its national predominance of conventional energy consumption, the policy may be more effective when it comes to other coastal areas worldwide, calling for a larger scale research. [Display omitted] •Impact of electric vehicles on marine environment was assessed for the first time.•Ecological risk, bioeffect, and health risk of PAHs were comprehensively assessed.•The sources of PAHs in seawater and sediment were analyzed by the PMF model.•Multi-technology-based prediction models were applied for PAHs and biomarkers.•Decrease of pollution risk after the ban on the sale of ICEV and PHEV was 12%− 26%.