Health effects of future dioxins emission mitigation from Chinese municipal solid waste incinerators

Dioxins (including 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin, as Group 1 Carcinogen) in the atmosphere mainly originate from incomplete combustion during municipal solid waste (MSW) incineration. To significantly reduce dioxins emission from the MSW incineration industry, China has promulgated a set of ambitious plans regulating MSW-related pollution; however, the emission reduction potentials and concomitant environmental and health impacts associated with the implementation of these programs on a national scale remain unknown. Here, we use real measurements from official environmental impact assessment systems and continuous emissions monitoring systems (covering 96.6% of national MSW incinerators) to estimate unit-level dioxins emission and concomitant environmental and health impacts. We find that in 2018, 99.3% and 66.7% of Chinese incinerators met such concentration and temperature standards, respectively, controlling the total emissions to 19.6 g toxic equivalency quantity and maintaining carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risks significantly below safety levels nationwide. Fully achieving both current standards and future regulations will reduce emissions and health risks by 67.7% and 62.6%, respectively, with waste sorting program contributing the majority. This study reveals substantial benefits from curbing MSW-related dioxins pollution and underscores the promise of ongoing management. [Display omitted] •The standard compliance rate of emission concentration in 2018 was extremely high.•Emission hotspots were concentrated in eastern China and three economic zones.•The health risks from dioxins emissions were significantly below acceptable levels.•Implementing waste sorting program contributed the most to the emission reductions.