Uncertainty and associated risks in the analysis of pesticides in homogeneous paprika samples

•Risk estimation based on sampling and sub-sampling uncertainty was performed.•Saffron and paprika were selected to analyse pesticides in homogeneous spiced products.•Subsampling has more uncertainty than in-product sampling due to the lot homogeneity.•Uncertainty is lower for weights below 30 g and increases for 100 g samples.•An ideal sample size can be between 20 and 30 g. In this study, risk estimation based on sampling and subsampling uncertainty was performed for pesticide analysis in homogeneous spice products such as paprika. The results of the subsampling were also used to estimate the minimum weight necessary in subsampling to minimize overall uncertainty. The results show that subsampling has more uncertainty than sampling in the product due to high homogeneity in the manufacturer’s batch. On the other hand, results using the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation on the size of the subsample indicate that uncertainty is lower for weights between 20 and 30 g and increases for sample sizes of 100 g. A sample size of 30 g was used for saffron, and the values simulated with the MC method were confirmed.