Aviation emissions and abatement policies in the United States: a city-pair analysis

Due to the increasing demand for passenger travel, aircraft emissions that contribute to local and global air pollution are of rising concern. This paper presents a city-pair gravity model to project the domestic US passenger air traffic through 2030. Unlike previous research that considered traffic within disconnected flight segments, our model simulates air traffic between the true origin and the ultimate destination. Results from the city-pair model are then fed into a simplified three-dimensional flight path and emissions distribution model. We illustrate the usefulness of the model system through various scenarios. Based upon a reference case without any deliberate emission control, the model system is used to analyze the change in emissions resulting from three abatement policies: a more aggressive reduction in aircraft NO x emissions through advanced engine technology, the substitution of some short-distance air travel with high-speed rail in suitable corridors, and the replacement of the hub-and-spoke system with exclusively direct flight connections.