Predicting peritumoral edema development after gamma knife radiosurgery of meningiomas using machine learning methods: a multicenter study

Objectives Edema is a complication of gamma knife radiosurgery (GKS) in meningioma patients that leads to a variety of consequences. The aim of this study is to construct radiomics-based machine learning models to predict post-GKS edema development. Methods In total, 445 meningioma patients who underwent GKS in our institution were enrolled and partitioned into training and internal validation datasets (8:2). A total of 150 cases from multicenter data were included as the external validation dataset. In each case, 1132 radiomics features were extracted from each pre-treatment MRI sequence (contrast-enhanced T1WI, T2WI, and ADC maps). Nine clinical features and eight semantic features were also generated. Nineteen random survival forest (RSF) and nineteen neural network (DeepSurv) models with different combinations of radiomics, clinical, and semantic features were developed with the training dataset, and evaluated with internal and external validation. A nomogram was derived from the model achieving the highest C-index in external validation. Results All the models were successfully validated on both validation datasets. The RSF model incorporating clinical, semantic, and ADC radiomics features achieved the best performance with a C-index of 0.861 (95% CI: 0.748–0.975) in internal validation, and 0.780 (95% CI: 0.673–0.887) in external validation. It stratifies high-risk and low-risk cases effectively. The nomogram based on the predicted risks provided personalized prediction with a C-index of 0.962 (95%CI: 0.951–0.973) and satisfactory calibration. Conclusion This RSF model with a nomogram could represent a non-invasive and cost-effective tool to predict post-GKS edema risk, thus facilitating personalized decision-making in meningioma treatment. Clinical relevance statement The RSF model with a nomogram built in this study represents a handy, non-invasive, and cost-effective tool for meningioma patients to assist in better counselling on the risks, appropriate individual treatment decisions, and customized follow-up plans. Key Points • Machine learning models were built to predict post-GKS edema in meningioma. The random survival forest model with clinical, semantic, and ADC radiomics features achieved excellent performance. • The nomogram based on the predicted risks provides personalized prediction with a C-index of 0.962 (95%CI: 0.951–0.973) and satisfactory calibration and shows the potential to assist in better counselling, appropriate treatment deci