Scenarios of Extreme Daily Precipitation for Norway under Climate Change

Time series data on daily precipitation values were generated using a global climate model to describe the climate from 1980-1999 as a control and the future climate (2030-2049) for Norway. These time series are used as training data for the Randomized Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse Model of precipitation (a stochastic rainfall generator), to look at a 1000 yr time series to detect changes in extreme precipitation due to climate change. This extreme value analysis reveals a trend toward increased extreme values and seasonal shifts. Regional variability is significant, with an increase of 10%-50% in both annual and seasonal values in some regions of Norway. Some limitations of this approach are discussed.