Water-energy-environment nexus under different urbanization patterns: A sensitivity-based framework for identifying key feedbacks

Nexus approaches, aiming at the complex connections among the correlative systems, provide an effective method for analyzing coevolution processes. In the context of urbanization, water, energy, and environment (W-E-E) systems are increasingly connected thus can be profiled as a W-E-E nexus. However, research on urban water-energy interactions and their impact on the environment is still in its infancy. In addition, a generic framework for modeling W-E-E nexus that includes dynamic feedbacks between human and natural systems remains elusive. In an attempt to fill this gap, this paper proposes a sensitivity-based framework consisting of four components: the water balance model, the energy balance model, the environmental response model, and the urbanization model. Community sensitivity serves as the missing link, tying together two feedback loops driven by economy and environment respectively. To demonstrate how such a framework could be applied, Wuhan city was selected as a case study and analyzed for its coevolution under three scenarios: extensive development, common development, and sustainable development. The results show that the proposed framework is competent in modeling the W-E-E nexus in Wuhan. The coevolution process is broadly divided into four cyclic stages (expansion, degeneration, convalescence, and stabilization) and environmental recovery consumes decades or more regardless of the development pattern. However, development patterns exert a salient effect on community sensitivity, with +294.4%, +5.5%, and −17.4% for extensive, common, and sustainable development patterns during the simulation period respectively. And only under sustainable development, can Wuhan anticipate achieving the goal of carbon neutrality by the 2060s. It is hoped that this framework will aid our understanding of the fundamental interactions in this complex relationship and allow researchers to improve W-E-E nexus modeling through better capture of the key elements in the feedback loops. •Present a sensitivity-based framework for the water-energy-environment nexus.•Build the missing link that connects 2 key loops driven by economics and environment.•Provide urban development pattern decisions for achieving resource sustainability.•Assess Wuhan's development trajectory over the next 2 centuries quantitatively.•Propose a development pattern to achieve carbon neutrality in Wuhan in 2060s.