Methodology for risk-based monitoring of contaminants in food – A case study in cereals and fish

[Display omitted] •A risk ratio method was used to rank chemical hazard-food combinations based on hazard quotients.•A case study was performed on mycotoxins and heavy metals in cereals and fish.•The hazard quotients for cereals were around ten times higher than for fish and thus monitoring should focus on cereals.•The presented methodology is the first one combining both risk-ranking and risk-based inspections.•The procedure used is objective and transparent and as such can be applied as input for risk-based monitoring programs. In this study, a methodology was developed that can be used as input for risk-based monitoring plans for chemical contaminants in food products. The novel methodology was applied to a case study in which cereals and fish were evaluated simultaneously for the possible presence of mycotoxins and heavy metals. The methodology was based on hazard quotients that were estimated by dividing the daily intake - using concentrations of the contaminants in the different food products and consumption of the respective products combined per product group - by the health based guidance value (HBGV) or reference points used for assessing potential health concerns (RPHC). The most relevant hazard-product combinations were further ranked based on the volume of import of the ingredients, per import country and a defined contaminant prevalence level per country. For fish, the hazard quotients were around ten times lower compared to the highest hazard quotients in cereals. Consumption of molluscs, mackerel-type fish and herring-type fish contaminated with mercury contributed most to the HBGV or RPHC. The top 25 hazard-product combinations for various age groups included: aflatoxin B1 in combination with wheat, rice (products), maize (products), and pasta, zearalenone in combination with wheat (products), T2/HT2-toxin in combination with rice (products), and DON in combination with wheat (products). The methodology presented showed to be useful in identifying the most relevant hazard-food-age group combinations and the most relevant import countries linked to these that should be included in the monitoring. As such, the method can help risk managers in establishing risk-based monitoring programs.