Forty-year spatio-temporal dynamics of agricultural climate suitability in China reveal shifted major crop production areas

[Display omitted] •Terrain condition is added as covariate in processing meteorological data to improve the accuracy of spatialization of meteorological data.•The matching of water, heat and soil resources in temporal spatial dimensions is comprehensively considered.•Arid and semi-arid areas are the main sensitive areas for crop cultivation.•CSPAsm, and CSPAmr have significantly moved southward in recent ten years.•Grassland, forest and unused land are three main land use types in sensitive areas. Studies measuring climate change effects on crop production and development usually focus on extreme temperature and heat indicators while ignoring water requirements and land suitability. In this study, spatially continuous differences in climate data from 1980 to 2017 using meteorological station data and elevation data as covariates were analysed with the ANUSPLIN software. The analysis integrated the effects of water and thermal resources on the agricultural production layout. Cover remote sensing of China’s multi-period land use showed that the centre of gravity of the suitable planting area of winter wheat, spring maize, and medium rice has changed according to climate conditions. It is anticipated that other arable land reserve resources, including unused lands, grasslands, and forest land, in sensitive areas such as the Taklamakan Desert, Loess Plateau, and Hexi Corridor could be rationally developed. This study provides valuable references for agricultural zoning adjustment and agricultural development policy formulation.