Insights into the evolution of cobalt use and implications through dynamic analysis of cobalt flows and stocks and the recycling potential of cobalt from urban mines in China during 2000–2021

[Display omitted] •Cobalt in end-of-life cobalt-containing end products reached 387 kt during 2000–2021.•Recycling rate of cobalt from obsolete cobalt-containing end products reached 20.0%.•Theoretical cumulative recycling potential of cobalt from urban mines was 204–356 kt.•A 73.8% utilization efficiency was gained by cobalt throughout its whole life cycle.•China’s in-use cobalt stocks reached 131 kt, with 83.8% coming from battery products. Several countries regard cobalt as a critical material due to its extensive use in clean energy technology and high-tech industries. To comprehensively examine how China’s cobalt industry developed and evolved from 2000 to 2021, our study quantified cobalt flows, stocks and the recycling potential of cobalt from China’s urban cobalt mines using dynamic material flow analysis. In 2021, China’s in-use cobalt stocks for cobalt-containing end products reached 131 kt, of which battery products and superalloys accounted for 83.8% and 8.1%, respectively. The theoretical cumulative recycling potential of cobalt from China’s urban cobalt mines reached 204–356 kt between 2000 and 2021 under different scenarios. However, the actual cumulative exploitation of cobalt from urban cobalt mines was 46–80 kt, of which consumer electronics, cemented carbides, and superalloys were the main recycled products. The cumulative exports and imports of cobalt in all commodities reached 558 and 1117 kt, respectively. China exported a large quantity of cobalt chemicals, chemical derivatives and cobalt-containing end products produced from imported cobalt raw materials. China imported 84.7% of the cobalt raw materials consumed domestically, and 32.6% of the domestically produced cobalt-containing end products were exported. Over the entire life cycle of cobalt, cobalt losses totaled 288 kt, with 51.0% of losses coming from refining, and a 73.8% cobalt utilization efficiency was achieved. China recovered 76.7 kt of cobalt, and the recycling rate of cobalt from end-of-life cobalt-containing end products reached 20.0%. The findings can serve as a scientific basis for China’s cobalt industry to develop efficiently and economically.