Soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural long-term field experiments as derived from particulate and mineral-associated organic matter

•MAOM-C content was modeled for arable fields with different management.•Organic fertilization, crop rotation, and soil texture define MAOM-C content.•A POM-C/MAOM-C ratio indicator was developed and tested.•This indicator contains information on MAOM-C saturation deficits.•POM-C/MAOM-C ratio indicators might support climate mitigation strategies. Soil organic matter (SOM) is indispensable for soil health and, in the context of climate change, is considered a significant CO2 sink. Improving agricultural management to increase long-term soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks for mitigating climate change requires tools that estimate short and long-cycling SOM pools. In this study, we analyzed changes in fast-cycling particulate organic matter (POM) and slow-cycling mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) induced by common management practices, i.e., fertilization and crop rotation in topsoils from 25 Central European long-term field experiments. When relating MAOM-C contents to recent MAOM-C saturation levels, estimated sequestration potentials were only met in coarse-textured soils under appropriate agricultural management or fine-textured soils under extreme organic fertilization. Soil texture, organic fertilization, and below-ground OC inputs through root exudates and root biomass were decisive for estimating MAOM-C, allowing for calibration of a mixed-effects model (Nakagawa’s: marginal R2m = 0.6, conditional R2c = 0.89). While the models containing soil texture and organic fertilization parameters can be validated and generalized (R2 = 0.43), the below-ground OC input predictor substantially decreases the generalizability of the validated models (R2 = 0.14). According to quantile regression models, we estimate the average difference in MAOM-C concentration between well-managed and control site (without organic fertilization) topsoils to 4.1 mg g−1 soil. In dependence on the soil bulk density, this amounts to 1.38 – 1.84 t ha−1 MAOM-C stocks or 5.06 – 10.1 t ha−1 CO2-equivalents. POM-C was difficult to predict (R2 = 0.28), presumably due to strong POM dynamics. The POM-C / MAOM-C ratio can inform on the effects of agricultural practices in before/after management change comparisons. Under increasing SOC concentration, an increasing POM-C / MAOM-C ratio indicates that the effects of organic fertilization do not transfer to real effects on long-term SOC sequestration. Because MAOM-C depends on soil texture, this ratio is also a covariate of soil texture, limit