Second order probabilistic assessment of chronic dietary exposure to aflatoxin M1 in Serbia

Considering the genotoxic and cancerogenic nature of aflatoxin M1 (AFM1), its presence in milk and dairy products may pose health risks for consumers. The chronic exposure was calculated using a two-dimensional (second order) Monte Carlo model. Results of 13 722 milk and dairy product samples analysed in the 2015–2022 period were used. Milk and dairy products intake information was collected with a Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) validated by a 24-h recall-based method. Risk characterization was done by calculation of the Margin of Exposure (MOE) and by calculation of AFM1 induced number of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases. Mean AFM1 Estimated Daily Intake (EDI) was highest in children at 0.336 (CI: 0.294–0.385) ng kg−1 bw day−1, followed by adolescents with 0.183 (CI: 0.164–0.204), then adult females with 0.161 (CI: 0.146–0.179) and finally adult males with lowest EDI of 0.126 (CI: 0.115–0.139) ng kg−1 bw day−1. MOE values based on mean EDI for all population groups were above risk associated threshold and the number of possible HCC cases was in the range of 0.0002–0.0021 cases per year for 105 individuals. The results suggest low health risks due to AFM1 exposure for the whole population. Still, this risk is not non-existent, especially for children as they have a higher ratio of the population exposed to risk associated AFM1 levels, with MOE values below risk indicating threshold starting at 77.5th percentile.