Predicting 5-Year Clinical Outcomes After Transcatheter or Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement (a Risk Score from the SURTAVI Trial)

Risk prediction scores for long-term outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) or surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) are lacking. This study aimed to develop preprocedural risk scores for 5-year clinical outcomes after TAVI or SAVR. This analysis included 1,660 patients at an intermediate surgical risk with severe aortic stenosis randomly assigned to TAVI (n = 864) or SAVR (n = 796) from the SURTAVI (Surgical Replacement and Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation) trial. The primary end point was a composite of all-cause mortality or disabling stroke at 5 years. The secondary end point was a composite of cardiovascular mortality or hospitalizations for valve disease or worsening heart failure at 5 years. Preprocedural multivariable predictors of clinical outcomes were used to calculate a simple risk score for both procedures. At 5 years, the primary end point occurred in 31.3% of the patients with TAVI and 30.8% of the patients with SAVR. Preprocedural predictors differed between TAVI and SAVR. Baseline anticoagulant use was a common predictor for events in both procedures, whereas male sex and a left ventricular ejection fraction