Prognostic factors and prediction model for 1-year mortality after proximal humeral fracture

Summary The goal was to investigate if patient characteristics can be used to predict 1-year post-fracture mortality after proximal humeral fracture (PHF). A clinical prediction model showed that the combination of 6 pre-fracture characteristics demonstrated good predictive properties for mortality within 1 year of PHF. Introduction Proximal humeral fractures (PFH) are the third most common major non-vertebral osteoporotic fractures in older persons and result in an increased mortality risk. The aim of this study was to investigate if patient characteristics can be used to predict 1-year post-fracture mortality. Methods Retrospective study with 261 patients aged 65 and older who were treated for a PHF in University Hospitals Leuven between 2016 and 2018. Baseline variables including demographics, residential status, and comorbidities were collected. The primary outcome was 1-year mortality. A clinical prediction model was developed using LASSO regression and validated using split sample and bootstrapping methods. The discrimination and calibration were evaluated. Results Twenty-seven (10.3%) participants died within 1-year post-PHF. Pre-fracture independent ambulation ( p