Digital mapping of the soil available water capacity: tool for the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change

Soil available water capacity (AWC) is a key function for human survival and well-being. However, its direct measurement is laborious and spatial interpretation is complex. Digital soil mapping (DSM) techniques emerge as an alternative to spatial modeling of soil properties. DSM techniques commonly apply machine learning (ML) models, with a high level of complexity. In this context, we aimed to perform a digital mapping of soil AWC and interpret the results of the Random Forest (RF) algorithm and, in a case study, to show that digital AWC maps can support agricultural planning in response to the local effects of climate change. To do so, we divided this research into two approaches: In the first approach, we showed a DSM using 1857 sample points in a southeastern region of Brazil with laboratory-determined soil attributes, together with a pedotransfer function (PTF), remote sensing and DSM techniques. In the second approach, the constructed AWC digital soil map and weather station data were used to calculate climatological soil water balances for the periods between 1917–1946 and 1991–2020. The result showed the selection of covariates using Shapley values as a criterion contributed to the parsimony of the model, obtaining goodness-of-fit metrics of R2 0.72, RMSE 16.72 mm m−1, CCC 0.83, and Bias of 0.53 over the validation set. The highest contributing covariates for soil AWC prediction were the Landsat multitemporal images with bare soil pixels, mean diurnal, and annual temperature range. Under the current climate conditions, soil available water content (AW) increased during the dry period (April to August). May had the highest increase in AW (∼17 mm m−1) and decrease in September (∼14 mm m−1). The used methodology provides support for AWC modeling at 30 m resolution, as well as insight into the adaptation of crop growth periods to the effects of climate change. [Display omitted] •The game theory (Shapley values) is tested on data soil available water capacity (AWC).•Refinement of covariates using Shapley values is useful in digital soil mapping (DSM) to create parsimonious models.•The synergy between DSM and weather data is helpful to build strategies for the adaptation of agricultural systems to climate change.•The approach supports methodologies incorporating AWC assessment at the local scale (e.g., soil quality/health, water footprint and ecosystem service provision).