Trends in successfully matched neurosurgery residency applicants

The United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1 recently transitioned to a pass/fail outcome, renewing interest in how programs select neurosurgical residents. This study investigates the association between match status and key academic metrics over time. Data are from the National Resident Matching Program from 2009 to 2022 for matched and unmatched US allopathic (MD) seniors. Investigated metrics included the mean number of contiguous ranks; mean number of distinct specialties ranked; mean USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 Clinical Knowledge (CK) scores; mean number of abstracts, presentations, and publications; mean number of research, work, and volunteer experiences; Alpha Omega Alpha status; attendance at a top 40 NIH-funded institution; PhD degree; and other degree. Multiple linear regression without an interaction term was used to evaluate how these have varied between the two groups during the study period and whether there is a difference between unmatched and matched MD seniors applying for a neurosurgical residency. Multiple linear regression with an interaction term was then used to test whether the difference in variables between the two groups changed over time. Regardless of match status, MD senior neurosurgical residency applicants exhibited an increase in USMLE Step 1 and 2 scores; average research experiences; abstracts, presentations, and publications; and work and volunteer experiences (p < 0.001). The percentage of applicants from a top 40 NIH-funded school decreased (p = 0.018), and the percentage who held an additional degree increased (p = 0.007). Between groups, there were significant differences in all categories except work experiences and other degree obtained. Over time, the difference between USMLE Step 2 scores between matched and unmatched seniors diminished (p = 0.027); in contrast, the difference in abstracts, presentations, and publications between the two groups increased over time (p < 0.001). From 2009 to 2022, neurosurgical residency applicants grew in their achievements across many metrics. In the advent of Step 1 becoming pass/fail, this study suggests that Step 2 is not viewed by programs as an adequate replacement. However, the Step 1 grading transition may serve as an opportunity for other factors to be considered that may better predict success in neurosurgical residency.