An Interpretable Machine Learning Model for Predicting 10-Year Total Hip Arthroplasty Risk

As the demand for total hip arthroplasty (THA) rises, a predictive model for THA risk may aid patients and clinicians in augmenting shared decision-making. We aimed to develop and validate a model predicting THA within 10 years in patients using demographic, clinical, and deep learning (DL)-automated radiographic measurements. Patients enrolled in the osteoarthritis initiative were included. DL algorithms measuring osteoarthritis- and dysplasia-relevant parameters on baseline pelvis radiographs were developed. Demographic, clinical, and radiographic measurement variables were then used to train generalized additive models to predict THA within 10 years from baseline. A total of 4,796 patients were included [9,592 hips; 58% female; 230 THAs (2.4%)]. Model performance using 1) baseline demographic and clinical variables 2) radiographic variables, and 3) all variables was compared. Using 110 demographic and clinical variables, the model had a baseline area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.68 and area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC) of 0.08. Using 26 DL-automated hip measurements, the AUROC was 0.77 and AUPRC was 0.22. Combining all variables, the model improved to an AUROC of 0.81 and AUPRC of 0.28. Three of the top five predictive features in the combined model were radiographic variables, including minimum joint space, along with hip pain and analgesic use. Partial dependency plots revealed predictive discontinuities for radiographic measurements consistent with literature thresholds of osteoarthritis progression and hip dysplasia. A machine learning model predicting 10-year THA performed more accurately with DL radiographic measurements. The model weighted predictive variables in concordance with clinical THA pathology assessments.