Conjunction of semi-mechanistic in vitro-in vivo modeling and population pharmacokinetics as a tool for virtual bioequivalence analysis - a case study for a BCS class II drug

[Display omitted] •The interindividual and interoccasion variability of drug disposition parameters is often neglected when simulating bioequivalence trials.•The paper describes a novel approach to address this issue by joining biorelevant dissolution tests, semi-mechanistic description of the gastrointestinal passage, and the population-based description of drug disposition.•The model allowed simulating the plasma concentrations for the originator and several candidate formulations, and the VBE results were comparable with the outcomes of the true bioequivalence trial in healthy volunteers. Virtual bioequivalence trial (VBE) simulations based on (semi)mechanistic in vitro-in vivo (IVIV) modeling have gained a huge interest in the pharmaceutical industry. Sophisticated commercially available software allows modeling variable drug fates in the gastrointestinal tract (GIT). Surprisingly, the between-subject and inter-occasion variability (IOV) of the distribution volumes and clearances are ignored or simplified, despite substantially contributing to varied plasma drug concentrations. The paper describes a novel approach for IVIV-based VBE by using population pharmacokinetics (popPK). The data from two bioequivalence trials with a poorly soluble BCS class II drug were analyzed retrospectively. In the first trial, the test drug product (biobatch 1) did not meet the bioequivalence criteria, but after a reformulation, the second trial succeeded (biobatch 2). The popPK model was developed in the Monolix software (Lixoft SAS, Simulation Plus) based on the originator’s plasma concentrations. The modified Noyes-Whitney model was fitted to the results of discriminative biorelevant dissolution tests of the two biobatches and seven other reformulations. Then, the IVIV model was constructed by joining the popPK model with fixed drug disposition parameters, the drug dissolution model, and mechanistic approximation of the GIT transit. It was used to simulate the drug concentrations at different IOV levels of the primary pharmacokinetic parameters and perform the VBE. Estimated VBE success rates for both biobatches well reflected the outcomes of the bioequivalence trials. The predicted 90% confidence intervals for the area under the time-concentration curves were comparable with the observed values, and the 10% IOV allowed the closest approximation to the clinical results. Simulations confirmed that a significantly lower maximum drug concentration for biobatch 1 was respon