Relative effectiveness of mechanisms for simulating uncertainty in quantitative systems

Abstract Simulation of engineering systems may involve high uncertainty, especially at the early stage of design. It is often necessary to explore the performance of systems under the influence of random events or when probabilistic rather than deterministic input data are known. This paper introduces a probabilistic computational tool that exists within a general methodology called design for system integrity (DSI). DSI supports engineers in design and manufacture by providing an assessment mechanism to analyse system design at all stages including early conceptual design. DSI is compared with the algebra of random variables, the Monte Carlo method and fuzzy theory.