Simulation of land use trends and assessment of scale effects on ecosystem service values in the Huaihe River basin, China

Land use demand change in the Huaihe River basin (HRB) and ecosystem service values (ESVs) in watersheds are important for the sustainable development and use of land resources. This paper takes the HRB as the research object, and using remote sensing images of land use as the data source adopts the comprehensive evaluation analysis method of ESVs based on equivalent factors and sensitivity analysis of the performance characteristics of ESV changes of different land use types. The PLUS model is used to predict spatiotemporal land use change characteristics to 2030 combining inertial development, ecological development, and cultivated land development. The spatial distribution and aggregation of ESVs at each scale were also explored by analyzing ESVs at municipal, county, and grid scales. Considering also hotspots, the contribution of land use conversion to ESVs was quantified. The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2020, cultivated land decreased sharply to 28,344.6875 km 2 , while construction land increased sharply to 26,914.563 km 2 , and the change of other land types was small. (2) The ESVs in the HRB were 222,019 × 10 12 CNY in 2000, 235,015 × 10 12 CNY in 2005, 234,419 × 10 12 CNY in 2010, 229,885 × 10 12 CNY in 2015, and 224,759 × 10 12 CNY in 2020, with an overall fluctuation, first increasing and then decreasing. (3) The ESVs were 219,977 × 10 12 CNY, 218,098 × 10 12 CNY, 219,757 × 10 12 CNY, and 213,985 × 10 12 CNY under the four simulation scenarios of inertial development, ecological development, cultivated land development, and urban development, respectively. At different scales, the high-value areas decreased, and the low-value areas increased. (4) The hot and cold spots of ESV values were relatively clustered, with the former mainly clustered in the southeast region and the latter mainly clustered in the northwest region. The sensitivity of ecological value was lower than 1, while the ESV was inelastic to the ecological coefficient, and the results were plausible. The mutual conversion of cultivated land to water contributed the most to ESVs. Based on the multi-scenario simulation of land use in the HRB by the PLUS model, we identified the spatial distribution characteristics of ESVs at different scales, which can provide a scientific basis and multiple perspectives for the optimization of land use structure and socio-economic development decisions.