Predicting cognitive stage transition using p-tau181, Centiloid, and other measures

A combination of plasma phospho-tau (p-tau), amyloid beta (Aβ)-positron emission tomography (PET), brain magnetic resonance imaging, cognitive function tests, and other biomarkers might predict future cognitive decline. This study aimed to investigate the efficacy of combining these biomarkers in predicting future cognitive stage transitions within 3 years. Among the participants in the Korean Brain Aging Study for the Early Diagnosis and Prediction of Alzheimer's Disease (KBASE-V) study, 49 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 113 cognitively unimpaired (CU) participants with Aβ-PET and brain imaging data were analyzed. Older age, increased plasma p-tau181, Aβ-PET positivity, and decreased semantic fluency were independently associated with cognitive stage transitions. Combining age, p-tau181, the Centiloid scale, semantic fluency, and hippocampal volume produced high predictive value in predicting future cognitive stage transition (area under the curve = 0.879). Plasma p-tau181 and Centiloid scale alone or in combination with other biomarkers, might predict future cognitive stage transition in non-dementia patients. -Plasma p-tau181 and Centiloid scale might predict future cognitive stage transition. -Combining them or adding other biomarkers increased the predictive value. -Factors that independently associated with cognitive stage transition were demonstrated.