Ecosystem variables importance in the presence and abundance of a globally invasive fish

Changes in physical habitat that are associated with anthropogenic disturbances facilitate the establishment and expansion of non-native species in receiving environments. Here, we evaluated the relative importance of ecosystem variables for the presence and abundance of the invasive fish Poecilia reticulata in Brazil. We collected fish species and assessed environmental variables through an established physical habitat protocol in 220 stream sites located in southeastern and midwestern Brazil. A total of 14,816 P. reticulata individuals were collected in 43 stream sites, and 258 variables that describe the physical characteristics of streams were assessed, including measures of channel morphology, substrate size and type, habitat complexity and cover, riparian vegetation cover and structure, and human influence. Dimensionality reduction methods were employed to limit redundancy, resulting in a smaller set of the most relevant environmental variables. Subsequently, we used random forest models to assess the relative importance of these variables in determining the presence and abundance of P. reticulata. The presence of this invasive fish was primarily explained by human disturbance variables related to urbanization (total impact, pavement, artificial structure areal cover, riparian canopy cover, electrical conductivity, mean thalweg depth, and sand), whereas channel morphology (mean bank full height) and fish cover variables (natural fish cover, and aquatic macrophyte areal cover) were important predictors of its abundance. Identifying which ecosystem variables are favorable to the establishment of non-native species is an important step in preventing future biological invasions, as well as managing those that already occur. [Display omitted] •We evaluated the relative importance of ecosystem variables for the guppy invasion.•We used random forest models to assess the information.•Introduction success is mainly related to human disturbance variables.•Establishment success is primarily related to instream variables.•Urbanized streams must be prioritized for monitoring in places where guppies occur.