Decision support system for desertification mitigation in the Agri basin, southern Italy

As a contribution to understanding the interaction between the factors which influence desertification, a decision support system (DSS) is developed for the 1700-km 2 Agri basin in southern Italy. This integrates the SHETRAN physically based hydrological and sediment yield model, a simple socio-economic model (in which farmers select those crops which give the highest income relative to cost of production), a database (containing climate, physical and socio-economic data according to a range of future scenarios) and existing desertification management experience into a single tool to aid decision-making in desertification mitigation. It provides a means of examining the effect of climate change and land management on desertification, allowing for feedback between the physical conditions and land use as determined by farmer decisions and government or EU agricultural policy (especially crop subsidies). Typical issues which the DSS can address include: what are the desertification consequences of specified climate scenarios, within a context of fixed agricultural policy?; and, given a climate scenario, is a specified land use or agricultural policy sustainable?