The Influence of Patient Preference on Surgeons’ Treatment Recommendations in the Management of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms

We aimed to determine whether surgeon variation in management of IPMN is driven by differences in risk perception and quantify surgeons' risk threshold for changing their recommendations. Surgeons vary widely in management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN). We conducted a survey of members of the Americas HepatoPancreatoBiliary Association (AHPBA), presented participants with 2 detailed clinical vignettes and asked them to choose between surgical resection and surveillance. We also asked them to judge the likelihood that the IPMN harbors cancer and that the patient would have a serious complication if surgery was performed. Finally, we asked surgeons to rate the level of cancer risk at which they would change their treatment recommendation. We examined the association between surgeons' treatment recommendations and their risk perception and risk threshold. 150 surgeons participated in the study. Surgeons varied in their recommendations for surgery (19% for vignette 1 (V1) and 12% for V2) and in their perception of the cancer risk (interquartile range [IQR] 2-10% for V1 and V2) and risk of surgical complications (V1 IQR 10-20%, V2 20-30%). After adjusting for surgeon characteristics, surgeons who were above the median in cancer risk perception were 22 percentage points (27% vs. 5%) more likely to recommend resection than those who were below the median (95% CI 11,34%; P