Incidence of infection with multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria and vancomycin-resistant enterococci in carriers: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis

Carriers of multidrug-resistant bacteria are at risk of infections with these bacteria; the precise size of this risk is unclear. We aimed to quantify the effect of gut colonisation on subsequent risk of infection with multidrug-resistant bacteria. We performed a systematic review and meta-regression analysis. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science Core Collection, and Google Scholar for follow-up studies published from Jan 1, 1995, to March 17, 2022, that measured the incidence of infections with multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (MDR-GNB) and from Jan 1, 1995, to March 15, 2022, that measured the incidence of infections with vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE). We included original cohort studies and case-control studies that used incidence-density sampling, included 50 or more patients with enteric colonisation or positive urinary samples as a surrogate marker of colonisation, or both, and analysed infections clearly preceded by colonisation. We did not use any language restrictions. We excluded studies not reporting length of follow-up. Summary data were extracted and independently cross-verified by two authors. Carriage was defined as MDR-GNB or VRE, detected in faecal or urinary cultures. Our primary outcomes were cumulative incidence and incidence density of infection in patients colonised by multidrug-resistant bacteria. To estimate pooled incidences, general linearised mixed-effects meta-regressions were used, adjusting for varying follow-up durations. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020222415. Of the 301 studies identified, 44 studies (26 on MDR-GNB, 14 on VRE, and four on both MDR-GNB and VRE) from 14 countries were retained for qualitative synthesis, 40 of which were analysed with meta-regression, comprising data for 14 049 patients colonised with multidrug-resistant bacteria. The pooled cumulative incidence of infection was 14% (95% CI 10–18; p