Seismic Hazard for Selected Sites in Greece: A Bayesian Estimate of Seismic Peak Ground Acceleration

A procedure for estimating maximum values of seismic peak ground acceleration at the examined site and quantiles of its probabilistic distribution in a future time interval of a given length is considered. The input information for the method are seismic catalog and regression relation between peak seismic acceleration at a given point and magnitude and distance from the site to epicenter (seismic attenuation law). The method is based on Bayesian approach, which simply accounts for influence of uncertainties of seismic acceleration values. The main assumptions for the method are Poissonian character of seismic events flow and distribution law of Gutenberg-Richter's type. The method is applied to seismic hazard estimation in six selected sites in Greece.