Establishment and Evaluation of a Nomogram Prediction Model for the Risks of Nontraumatic Fracture in Older Adults with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

To analyze the risk factors for nontraumatic fractures in older adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus, to establish a nomogram prediction model, and to evaluate the model. The clinical data of 278 older adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus were collected as the modeling group, and the clinical data of 109 older adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus were collected as the validation group. In both groups, patients were divided into a fracture subgroup and a non-fracture subgroup according to whether there were nontraumatic fractures after patients developed type 2 diabetes mellitus. Multivariate logistic regression was done to identify factors influencing the risks of non-traumatic fracture in older patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. R software was used to construct a nomogram prediction model, and then the accuracy and clinical validity of the nomogram (area under the ROC curve, H-L fit curve, and calibration curve) were evaluated. In the modeling group, the incidence of nontraumatic fractures in older adul