Development and external validation of a machine learning-based prediction model for the cancer-related fatigue diagnostic screening in adult cancer patients: a cross-sectional study in China

Purpose Cancer-related fatigue (CRF) is the most common symptom in cancer patients and may interfere with patients’ daily activities and decrease survival rate. However, the etiology of CRF has not been identified. Diagnosing CRF is challenging. Thus, our study aimed to develop a CRF prediction model in cancer patients, using data that healthcare professionals routinely obtained from electronic health records (EHRs) based on the 3P model and externally validate this model in an independent dataset collected from another hospital. Methods Between April 2022 and September 2022, a cross-sectional study was conducted on adult cancer patients at two first-class tertiary hospitals in China. Data that healthcare professionals routinely obtained from electronic health records (EHRs) based on the 3P model were collected. The outcome measure was according to ICD-10 diagnostic criteria for CRF. Data from one hospital ( n = 305) were used for model development and internal validation. An independent data set from another hospital ( n = 260) was utilized for external validation. logistic regression, random forest (RF), Naive Bayes (NB), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were constructed and compared. The model performance was evaluated in terms of both discrimination and calibration. Results The prevalence of CRF in the two centers was 57.9% and 56.1%, respectively. The Random Forest model achieved the highest AUC of 0.86 among the four types of classifiers in the internal validation. The AUC of RF and NB were above 0.7 in the external validation, suggesting that the models also have an acceptable generalization ability. Conclusions The incidence of CRF remains high and deserves more attention. The fatigue prediction model based on the 3P theory can accurately predict the risk of CRF. Nonlinear algorithms such as Random Forest and Naive Bayes are more suitable for diagnosing and evaluating symptoms.