Prediction of cardiovascular events using myocardial strain ratio derived from 13N-ammonia positron emission tomography

Objectives Myocardial flow reserve (MFR), derived from ammonia N-13 positron emission tomography (NH 3 -PET), can predict the prognosis of patients with various heart diseases. We aimed to investigate whether myocardial strain ratio (MSR) was useful in predicting MACE and allowed for further risk stratification of cardiovascular events in patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD) in addition to MFR. Methods Ninety-five patients underwent NH 3 -PET because of IHD. MFR was determined as the ratio of hyperemic to resting myocardial blood flow (MBF). MSR was defined as the ratio of strains at stress and rest. The endpoint was major adverse cardiac events (MACE), including all-cause death, acute coronary syndrome, heart failure hospitalization, and revascularization. The ability to predict MACE was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the predictability of ME was analyzed using Kaplan–Meier analysis. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). Results The ROC curve analysis demonstrated a cutoff of 0.93 for MACE with MSR (sensitivity and specificity of 77% and 71%, respectively). Patients with MSR < 0.93 displayed a significantly higher MACE rate than those with MSR ≥ 0.93 ( p = 0.0036). The Cox proportional hazards regression analysis indicated that MSR was an independent marker that could predict MACE in imaging and clinical parameters (HR, 7.32; 95% CI: 1.59–33.7, p = 0.011). Conclusions MSR was an independent predictor of MACE and was useful for further risk stratification in IHD. MSR has the potential for a new indicator of revascularization in patients with IHD. Key Points • We hypothesized that combining myocardial flow reserve (MFR) with the myocardial strain ratio (MSR) obtained by applying the feature-tracking technique to ammonia N-13 PET would make it predictive of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) compared to MFR alone. • MSR was an independent predictor of MACE, allowing for further risk stratification in addition to MFR in patients with ischemic heart disease. • MSR is a potential new indicator of revascularization.