Machine learning-based predictive risk models for 30-day and 1-year mortality in severe aortic stenosis patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation

Predictive risk score for mortality plays an important role in the decision-making in patient selection and risk stratification for TAVI. Existing established predictive risk scores had poor discrimination performance in the prediction of mortality after the TAVI. The present study aimed to develop machine learning-based predictive models for 30-day and 1-year mortality in severe aortic stenosis patients undergoing TAVI. A total of 186 patients in a retrospective cohort study were analyzed. The models were fitted by a decision tree. Each model was tested in 100 iterations of 80:20 stratified random splitting into training/testing samples and 10-fold cross-validation. Variables that predict 30-day mortality are a set of factors driven mainly by height, chronic lung disease, STS score, preoperative LVEF, age, and preoperative LVOT VTI. Variables that predict 1-year mortality are a set of factors consisting of preoperative LVEF, STS score, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, home oxygen use, serum creatinine level, and preoperative LVOT Vmax. This decision tree-generated predictive models for 30-day and 1- year mortality provided the most precise accuracy of 0.97 and 0.90 with the AUC-ROC curves of 0.83 and 0.71 on 30-day and 1-year mortality on testing data and had better discrimination performance compared to the existing established TAVI predictive risk scores. These machine learning models show excellent accuracy and have a better prediction for 30-day and 1-year mortality than the existing established TAVI predictive risk scores. A customized predictive model deems to be properly developed for better risk discrimination among cohorts. •We developed the models for predicting mortality in symptomatic severe aortic stenosis patients who underwent TAVI.•The machine learning-based predictive risk models show excellent accuracy in predicting 30-day and 1-year mortality.•The machine learning-based predictive risk models have a better prediction for mortality than the conventional risk scores.•The models might be helpful for clinicians to estimate a patient’s probability of 30-day and 1-year mortality.